(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Immunity decision comes Monday [1] [] Date: 2024-07-01 Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet. WMUR: Poll shows low trust in Supreme Court ahead of Trump immunity decision The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether former President Donald Trump is immune from criminal prosecution, a decision that could redefine presidential power and impact the court's reputation as a new poll suggests public confidence is already low. "Most people that I’ve talked to think this is political, and it's just further evidence of what the poll results show, that the justices are favoring Trump or helping Trump avoid trial,” said American University Law Professor Stephen Wermiel. “I'm not in that camp. I think the court is going to issue what, in its mind, is a major constitutional decision.” According to the latest Associated Press-NORC Center survey, 7 in 10 Americans think justices are more influenced by ideology, rather than impartiality. Well, they are. And no one knows how this one will break, so your guess is as good as any. Jamie Dupree/”Regular Order” on Substack: For now, Democrats circle the wagons for Biden Supreme Court ready to rule on Trump immunity BOTTOM LINE. What does this mix of evidence tell me? That most Democrats are ready to stick with Biden because they cannot stomach the idea of Trump winning in November. It also tells me that there are still very major concerns about Trump - because we certainly didn’t see any immediate bump for him in the polls. ... FOURSOME. In addition to the Trump case, there are three other decisions left on the docket for today. One case involves the Federal Reserve. The other two are First Amendment cases dealing with laws from Texas and Florida - which basically would block social media companies from moderating what people post or enforcing 'community standards' of behavior. The Court convenes at 10 am. x Given the astonishing 💰@POTUS raised in the window of the debate, much of it from new donors, the grassroots are clearly sending a signal NOT to leave the race: $33M since Thursday is a clear sign of confidence. So all this is really just a weak insiders & chattering class panic — Cornell Belcher (@cornellbelcher) June 30, 2024 Bill Scher/Washington Monthly: A Wasted Opportunity for Biden (But Still Time for Redemption) Ronald Reagan overcame a bad debate that triggered panic about his age. Here’s how Biden can do the same. Yes, Donald Trump was a colossal liar. Yes, America would be better off if its president had a raspy voice instead of a rap sheet. But clearly, many voters are worried that Biden is deteriorating. Biden also could have helped himself on that front by acknowledging the raspy voice and low energy. It wasn’t until well into the debate that Biden aides told reporters, in response to questions about his voice, that he had a cold. The president could have said so upfront. More broadly, Biden could be more forthright about aging in general—that while he may walk more gingerly and talk more haltingly, he has the record to prove he can still do the job of Commander-in-Chief. Candor breeds confidence. History tells us Biden can recover. Reagan did, with his famous quip in the second debate: “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” (As I’ve written previously, that line drew attention away from what could have been a disastrous moment earlier in the evening when Reagan clumsily contradicted himself about alleged illegal CIA activity in Nicaragua.) x Just carrying on as if nothing happened is childish. Yes, millions of people voted for Biden. But after the debate, they, too, have a right to know if he can carry on the campaign they entrusted to him. It's not "panic" or "betrayal" to ask any of that. It's democracy. /2 — Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) June 30, 2024 Tim Miller/The Bulwark: The Bidens Need to Have a Talk Let’s be candid about what happened in last night’s debate. THE ONLY REASON THE BULWARK EXISTS is that we all want to speak frank truths about Donald Trump. Some of us bailed on political careers over it. Others had their voices silenced by a billionaire who only wanted a mouthpiece for the Trump regime. For that reason, it is our obligation to be as forthright as possible about the threat a second Trump term poses, what we think is the best way to stop it, and when we think the current approach isn’t working. Given Joe Biden’s historically disastrous debate performance, there is a real question about whether he can handle the job. I heard that question from dozens upon dozens of people on Thursday night. Black and white, young and old, political insider and casual observer. Liberal Democrat and Haley Republican. There are a ton of pieces echoing Tom and Tim, not hard to find. I’m not going to post them all because I couldn’t. I will say the sentiment is real, especially from the majority of Democrats who worried about Biden’s age before the debate. It will need to be addressed moving forward, as Bill Scher notes. The question is how. And the answer to that depends on how representative of Biden that debate was. The other side of the coin is how badly Trump did, especially with specific groups like white unmarried women. And make no mistake, he was awful.That doesn’t address how you win them over to vote for your side. Overall polls and focus groups show little change, but that’s only for now. Keep in mind that some of the most resolute Biden supporters are the Never Trumpers, conservatives all (Mike Madrid, Stuart Stevens, e.g.): x More data coming in from the battleground states…If the Democratic base holds- and it sure as hell looks like it is - Biden’s in a stronger position than he was. Now get your swords and shields and march down the damn battlefield! https://t.co/Dr1oqw3B9s — Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) June 29, 2024 x Sure, that's easy. He'd be relieved. The message from the Democratic party would be "I guess Trump was right and Biden wasn't up to it. We'll give it another shot. Eventually we'll get it right. And hey, trust us to the lead the country." It's madness. https://t.co/8k8BwK5JKv — Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) July 1, 2024 Jay Caspian Kang/The New Yorker: The Case for Joe Biden Staying in the Race The known bad candidate is better than the chaos of the unknown. I don’t think it’s possible to clearly say one option is much better than the other, but I would argue, almost by default, that acting in a rash manner without a real contingency plan tends to lead to bad results, especially when you’re dealing with inept actors. I would feel differently if there were one obvious replacement for Biden or even two but the task of whittling down a field of contenders in four months feels like a principled protest rather than a measured and pragmatic strategy. By the slimmest of margins, I find myself opting for the known bad candidate over the chaos of the unknown. The Democrats have to hope that Biden can keep giving speeches like he did in North Carolina and that the debate will become an unpleasant but fading memory. They have to believe the polls are wrong. They need Trump to remind the country why they rejected him in 2020. The situation is certainly dire, but the irony here is that the Party’s foolishness and Biden’s arrogance, stubbornness, or blindness, means that we are stuck with him. There is no realistic Plan B. x Normally when people say a politician lied, they mean he or she said something they think is groundless and they completely disagree with. In contrast, Trump confidently asserts the opposite of well-known facts and blatantly makes stuff up. — Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) June 30, 2024 Josh Brown/Downtown Josh Brown: How the Trump vs Biden debate played on Wall Street I'm sorry if this upsets you, I'm just telling you how it is. What I’m about to say is a gross generalization of how tens of thousands of people feel. I believe it is directionally right, but, of course, it doesn’t accurately portray the feelings of every single individual. Try to understand that I am trying to capture the general feeling, not dwell on every exception. If you work on Wall Street and this doesn’t represent you, that’s great - no worries. But I highly doubt you’d be able to honestly say that this doesn’t represent the majority of your co-workers. Trump's victory means a higher likelihood that the 2017 tax cuts from his first term will be extended rather than sunset. This is priority one for people who are involved in the stock and bond markets professionally or who cater to wealthy families. "How can they be so cynical and selfish?" You would be too. People mostly vote their own self-interest, yourself included. Teachers vote for what's best for teachers, oil and gas workers vote for what's best for oil and gas workers, let's keep it a buck. x Historian here - I have no clue what is gonna happen next. None of us do. — Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) June 30, 2024 In other news, politics from other countries: France Emile Chabal/X via Threadreader: A word of warning for ppl looking for smoking hot-takes on the French elections tonight: actually, were unlikely to find out much and it'll be very hard to predict the final results, especially bc this election is extremely unpredictable. The few things to watch out for are... 1. Participation. The higher it is, the more people care and the more unpredictable the results and modelling of future results will be. If we exceed 70%, even the best pollsters and analysts will struggle to model the future. x Takeaways: —Roughly lines with polls; far-right in fact lower. —Left is ≈ at sum of what the 4 parties got separately in early June. Unity key to making runoffs. —Terrible for Macron, but also somehow better than they could have been given his party got just 14% three weeks ago https://t.co/Me5M0ybtZh — Taniel (@Taniel) July 1, 2024 Read the Taniel thread here on French election results, keeping in mind this is first round. The top 2 + a candidate who got 12.5% or more moves to the runoff. The united left has committed to dropping their candidate if they came in third, to support Macron’s party. Meanwhile Macron’s PM says they will do similar to support a non far right candidate, even if they are of the left, but some of the individual Macronists may not go along. ISRAEL Haaretz: Israel's Labor Party, Left-wing Meretz Merge Into One Party, to Be Called 'The Democrats' According to the agreement signed by Labor Party chair Yair Golan and Meretz leader Tomer Reznik, this is not a technical merger, but rather the creation of a brand-new party that will operate as a single entity moving forward. Additionally, the parties agreed that at least one Meretz delegate would be included down to the fourth place spot in the current Labor Party list, another representative down to the eighth place, and so on down to the 12th and 16th places. The impact of this in these times remains to be seen, but the historic Labor Party is no more. UNITED KINGDOM x Don’t forget what they have done. Vote for change with Labour. pic.twitter.com/TxiCEZxzQP — Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) June 30, 2024 Isabel Hardman/The Spectator: Why is Sunak proud of his defensive campaign? Rishi Sunak isn’t lacking in energy as he goes into his final few days of election campaigning. He is, though, using that energy in some quite futile ways. He spent much of his interview with Laura Kuenssberg this morning arguing with the way she phrased questions and getting irritated that he wasn’t being given enough time to explain himself on key policy areas. That tetchy impatience – something Sunak never recognises in himself – has long been one of his visible flaws. It isn’t necessarily the kind of visible flaw that puts voters off a prime minister. The problem for Sunak was not whether he had eaten enough breakfast and was a bit too hangry, but what he could offer up to voters as evidence that backing the Conservatives on Thursday is a good idea. The Spectator is a conservative outlet, and one of the better follows for what’s going on with the Tories, who may finish third on July 4. Some last comments on the media frenzy over Biden: x Lots of Dem leaders and opinion makers who had faith in Biden lost it on Thursday night. But a chunk of those calling for him to go are people who never thought he should run, didn’t want him as the 2020 nominee, and didn’t want him to run again, now reveling in vindication. — Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) June 30, 2024 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/1/2249940/-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Immunity-decision-comes-Monday?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/