(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 860: counter-attack successes ahead [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-07-02 Russian forces launched several missiles of various targets throughout Ukraine on the evening of June 30 and during the day on July 1. Ukrainian military sources noted that Russia launched two Iskander-K cruise missiles at Kyiv City on the evening of June 30, both of which Ukrainian forces shot down.[54] Falling debris from the missiles damaged civilian infrastructure in Obolonskyi Raion, Kyiv City, however.[55] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Head Serhii Lysak noted that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Dnipro City overnight with an unspecified number of ballistic missiles.[56] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted an Iskander strike against the Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast on July 1, and Ukrainian sources reported the sounds of explosions near the Myrhorod area.[57] Ukraine's Eastern Air Command reported that Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed one Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missile over an unspecified part of eastern Ukraine on July 1.[58] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash noted on July 1 that Russian forces appear to be increasingly conducting missile strikes in the evenings, suggesting that Russian forces may seek to maximize damage to civilian areas as more people are spending time outside in the summer.[59] www.understandingwar.org/... x 🇺🇸🇺🇦 "In the near future, probably even before the NATO summit next week, Ukraine should expect new announcements regarding the strengthening of its air defence", - Blinken stated this in an interview with the Brookings Institution. pic.twitter.com/9HxNGZVToR — MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 2, 2024 If Ukraine, with the support of its partners, demonstrates the ability to conduct significant counteroffensive operations, it can help persuade the Russian regime to end the war. This is said in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to Ukrinform. “Ukraine's partners can help Ukraine reduce Putin's willingness to continue to wage endless war in pursuit of Ukraine's destruction by helping Ukraine conduct significant counteroffensive operations that liberate Ukrainian territory and invalidate Putin's assumptions about what Russia can achieve in Ukraine by force,” the report says. www.ukrinform.net/... Russian cities have been hit by widespread power outages after a Ukrainian drone barrage struck the country's Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions overnight. Kyiv's drone attacks left 90 percent of the Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, without electricity and water, Telegram channel Mash, which says it is linked to Russia's security services, reported on Monday. Ukraine's Energy Ministry also said Monday that about 90 percent of the Belgorod region, including the cities of Belgorod and Stary Oskol, is currently without electricity. Attacks targeting critical infrastructure have typically been part of the Russian military playbook in the war. A Financial Times report published on June 5 claimed Russia had taken out more than half of Ukraine's power-generation capacity since invading the country on February 24, 2022. www.newsweek.com/... x 2/ Russia has made some progress on the ground and yet even this has come at massive costs. For the gain of around 513 square km, they have lost around 180 thousand personnel. Losing 360 people for every km is a poor return on investment - in any war. — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) July 2, 2024 To assess how Russia’s 2024 campaigns in Ukraine is going, and whether it has maximised its opportunities this year, it is necessary to briefly explore what Russia set out to achieve in Ukraine this year. Back in early April, I explored how the Russians might view success in 2024. You can read that article here. However, to summarise, what does Putin want in 2024? Putin's 2024 objectives for his war against Ukraine are hardly a mystery. Described in his speeches on February 21 and 24, 2022, in the many of his speeches since that time including his March 2024 post-election victory speech, Putin aims to do everything possible to ensure that the world understands that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. It goes without saying that Putin will want to keep western politicians cowed an in a state of ‘escalation terror’ by regular reference to nuclear weapons. Additionally, Putin, who wants to reassert what he describes as Russian civilisation in his part of the world. He has also has consistently portrayed Russia as the victim of a NATO plot and Ukrainian "Nazis". This is a narrative that he continues to employ. As Illia Ponomarenko describes it in his excellent new book, I Will Show You How It Was, these Putin speeches and accompanying misinformation has become a “hateful propagandistic stink wafting from the east”. mickryan.substack.com/... Putin won’t be satisfied by winning Ukraine’s northeast. The only outcome he will accept is the capture of Kyiv - Foreign Affairs. When the war in Ukraine began, the Russian elite were in shock. The rich and politically connected believed their previous lives were over, and those abroad refused to return. However, by 2023, Russian elites started endorsing the war. Now, oligarchs are discussing what conditions in Ukraine might constitute a victory for Russia. "We must win this war. Otherwise, they won’t allow us to live. And, of course, Russia would collapse," one Russian oligarch said. People close to Russia’s president say he views the invasion as one front in a larger conflict with the West. Therefore, battlefield success in Ukraine might not satisfy Putin. To defeat his real foes in Brussels and Washington, he may feel the need to attack a NATO member. According to Russian elites, the most likely targets would be Estonia or Latvia, the two Baltic countries with large Russian minorities. A provocation like this could be particularly helpful to Russia in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election. In the past, Russian elites had little desire to chance nuclear conflict. But now many of them are persuaded that NATO would not dare to respond. They see the West as tired and divided and, therefore, far less interested in a struggle against Russia. https://t.co/nmnoD8Wgq0 x Putin won’t be satisfied by winning Ukraine’s northeast. The only outcome he will accept is the capture of Kyiv - Foreign Affairs. When the war in Ukraine began, the Russian elite were in shock. The rich and politically connected believed their previous lives were over, and… pic.twitter.com/caiUZOrJbf — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 2, 2024 Key Takeaways: Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev boasted that Russian authorities have increased detentions and prosecutions related to illegal migration into Russia while calling for intensified Russian government crackdowns against illegal migration. Russia assumed its one-month-long rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on July 1 for the first time since April 2023 and will likely use this position as a power projection base within the international system as it historically has. South Korea's Ministry of Unification announced on July 1 that North Korean state TV channel Korean Central TV switched to transmitting broadcasts via Russian satellites instead of Chinese satellites, reportedly affecting South Korea's ability to monitor North Korean state TV. Hungary assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) Council on July 1. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka. The Russian information space continues to discuss the mistreatment of wounded and disabled Russian servicemembers in Ukraine. x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUL 1, 2024 ■ Combat engagements & casualties below 7-day average ■ Equipment losses stay high; daily record for artillery matched, big tank losses ■ Heavy 🇷🇺 shelling but improved strike ratio See dashboard for further data#UkraineWar… pic.twitter.com/YIEQr0kwHC — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) July 1, 2024 Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna while Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna amid continued fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on July 1. Geolocated footage published on July 1 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Makiivka (northwest of Kreminna).[22] Geolocated footage published on June 30 and July 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in the forested area south of Kreminna and east of Terny (west of Kreminna).[23] ... ISW's current control of terrain assessment places Russian forces about 1.1 kilometers away from Stepova Novoselivka at the closest point, and ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Russian forces operating near or in the settlement….Fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Berestove, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Pishchane; northwest of Kreminna near Hrekivka, Nevske, and Makiivka; and west of Kreminna near Torske and Terny on June 30 and July 1.[27] Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction, and elements of the Chechen "Shrama" detachment of the 204th "Akhmat" Spetsnaz Regiment are reportedly operating near Kreminna.[28] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x Almost immediately after the Supreme Court immunity ruling that a President can be a king, Trump files for immunity in the election fraud, hush money trial he's been convicted of in 34 counts. — KT "Special CIA Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) July 2, 2024 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/2/2250544/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-860-counter-attack-successes-ahead?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/