(C) Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural This story was originally published by Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Montana's Rural Voters Could Decide State's Abortion Protections [1] ['Anya Petrone Slepyan', 'The Daily Yonder', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow', 'Class', 'Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus', 'Display Inline', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Avatar', 'Where Img', 'Height Auto Max-Width', 'Vertical-Align Bottom .Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow .Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Avatar'] Date: 2024-06-04 Nowadays, Lillian Thomas takes her clipboard with her everywhere she goes. She carries it on hikes, to work, and even to her son’s friends’ birthday parties. Thomas is one of several hundred volunteers who have been trained to collect signatures for Constitutional Initiative 128, which “would amend the Montana Constitution to expressly provide a right to make and carry out decisions about one’s own pregnancy, including the right to abortion.” Born and raised in Kalispell, Montana, Thomas had an abortion at the age of 16. Since April, she has been collecting signatures to try to ensure that other women in her state have the same right. “Having made that decision at the age of 16 for myself, and having had the opportunity to receive that healthcare, I can’t imagine not being able to make that decision on my own,” Thomas told the Daily Yonder. Abortion is currently legal in Montana, protected by a 1999 state Supreme Court decision. In recent years, the Court has struck down several laws passed by the legislature that would have restricted abortion. This makes Montana an outlier in the region; Idaho, North Dakota, and South Dakota have all passed abortion bans, and Wyoming legislators are attempting to. But with two Montana Supreme Court seats open in the next election, pro-choice advocates believe a constitutional amendment is necessary to ensure reproductive rights are protected long-term. The campaign, led by Montanans for Reproductive Rights, has spread across Montana with the help of both volunteers like Thomas and paid signature gatherers. To get CI-128 on the ballot for the November election, organizers must collect over 60,000 signatures by June 21. And with around 47% of the state’s population living in rural communities, according to the Census, organizers know that rural voters will have an essential role to play if the measure is to succeed. A recent poll from the Rural Democracy Initiative shows that 74% of rural voters in 10 battleground states, including Montana, agree with the statement “we should trust women and their doctors when it comes to abortion, not politicians.” Another poll of likely Montana voters from across the state found that 58% believed “abortion should be legal in most circumstances.” These results may come as a surprise to some, especially given the common media narrative that depicts rural voters as hyper-conservative. But the new polls are part of a growing body of evidence that challenges this myth, according to Nicholas Jacobs, a political researcher and professor of government at Colby College in Maine. “This is one more data point to show that far from the radical, enraged extremists that they are often portrayed to be, rural Americans fit squarely within the mainstream of American politics on a whole bunch of issues,” Jacobs told the Daily Yonder. Rural and small-town voters have already played pivotal roles in votes to protect reproductive rights in states such as Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan, according to Daily Yonder analysis. And with the potential for abortion-related measures on the ballot in as many as 13 states this November, campaign organizers understand the importance of engaging rural as well as urban and suburban voters. “Abortion and reproductive rights are not partisan issues,” said Ashley All, communications director for Montanans Supporting Reproductive Rights, in an interview with the Daily Yonder. “This is something that is supported in all communities, urban, suburban, small-town and rural. And it’s supported in ballot campaigns across the country.” Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in the 2022 case Dobbs v. Jackson, a flurry of legislation, court cases, and ballot measures have reshaped access to reproductive health care across the country. So far, reproductive rights have been defended in each of the six statewide ballot measures that put the question directly to voters. Sarah Jaynes, executive director of the Rural Democracy Initiative, expects this trend to continue with the help of rural communities. “I think that any measure that defends a right to abortion care is going to pass,” Jaynes told the Daily Yonder. “It’s a decisive issue for voters.” But opinion polling on abortion is notoriously tricky to get right. And the result of any given poll may not accurately reflect the results of specific ballot measures, Jacobs warned. This is because abortion is an inherently complex issue, with a large, murky gray area between total legality and complete illegality. Most voters fall somewhere between, with differing opinions on if and when abortions ought to be regulated if legal, or if exceptions should be made in certain cases if illegal. And researchers have found that rural voters have even more complex views on abortion than their urban and suburban counterparts. This complexity means that the wording of poll questions can have a significant impact on poll results, Jacobs said. That makes it hard to predict the outcome of a specific ballot measure from a poll that asks a differently worded question. Still, advocates are optimistic that ballot measures protecting reproductive rights will be successful in November. And while overwhelming rural support would help that cause, it is not strictly necessary to change the outcome of a vote, Jacobs said. He pointed to the 2022 Kansas referendum, in which voters were asked whether the state constitution should be amended to say that the constitution did not protect the right to an abortion. Although many rural counties voted in favor of the measure, the margin was often narrow, not nearly enough to overcome more widespread opposition to the initiative among suburban and urban voters. The measure failed statewide, 59 to 41%. “If [the vote] fell along classic partisan cleavage, it would have passed,” Jacobs said. “But on the margins, enough rural voters switched from the classic partisan position that the measure failed.” Even this “classic partisan split,” with Republicans opposing abortion rights and Democrats defending them, is shifting in post-Dobbs America. Although Republican-led legislatures have banned abortion in 14 states and severely restricted access in others, a significant portion of Republican voters do not necessarily agree with these policies. According to the Rural Democracy Initiative poll, 63% of rural Republican-identifying voters either personally supported the right to abortion, or said they were personally against abortion but did not believe “the government should prevent someone from making that decision for themselves.” “We’ve spent 50 years having a really limited, but really political conversation about abortion care. Dobbs changed that conversation,” said a spokesperson for Montanans Supporting Reproductive Rights. “For politicians it means they’re going to have to think a bit more independently about what their constituents want.” Related Republish This Story Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. 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