(C) Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural This story was originally published by Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Can Dems keep winning in Indian Country? [1] ['Tom Lutey', 'More Tom Lutey', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow', 'Class', 'Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus', 'Display Inline', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Avatar', 'Where Img', 'Height Auto Max-Width', 'Vertical-Align Bottom .Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow .Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Avatar'] Date: 2024-06-14 This story is excerpted from Capitolized, a weekly newsletter featuring expert reporting, analysis and insight from the reporters and editors of Montana Free Press. Want to see Capitolized in your inbox every Thursday? Sign up here. Tribal communities have for decades been an essential part of the voter base that gives Montana Democrats the ability to make competitive bids for statewide office. A close look at turnout figures for June 4 party primaries in the state’s eight majority-Native districts, however, indicates there may be cracks in that coalition, with voter turnout in those districts’ Republican primaries outstripping the number of Democrats who cast ballots. This year’s primary election was the first run for political districts drawn after the 2020 census. Historical election data tabulated by Dave’s Redistricting rates those reservation districts as leaning toward Democrats by margins ranging from 10 to 27 percentage points. Fall turnout is likely to be much improved for Democrats in reservation area districts, said Dan Stusek, a Republican who served on the commission that redrew Montana’s legislative maps following the 2020 census. “I wouldn’t be too bullish on that,” Stusek said of the low primary turnout. “I anticipate a good effort this fall on the Democratic side in Big Horn County, Blaine County, Roosevelt County, especially those eastern Montana reservation districts.” In March, the Democratic Party announced a multimillion-dollar Big Sky Victory plan to drive up Native American turnout, a move preceded by 20-year lows in Native voter turnout in key counties in the 2022 general election, when Democrats weren’t driving Native turnout for a statewide candidate. State Sen. Susan Webber, D-Browning, was a candidate in 2022. This time, Webber said, she believes a message specific to Native American Montanans is needed to drive turnout. The next Legislature will take up the renewal of Medicaid expansion, which is crucial for her constituents, she said, noting a lack of awareness that 1,300 Native children have lost insurance coverage as a result of re-enrollment problems. “We really need a strong message, and it has to be applicable to reservations, because it always happens that the reservations get left out on everything. People don’t see themselves as part of the bigger picture,” Webber said. Native turnout is critical to the prospects of Democratic candidates in statewide races, among them U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, the only Montana Democrat who currently holds statewide office, and widely regarded as vulnerable to Republican efforts to take control of the Senate. Spring voter turnout was extremely low on reservations, said Joe Lamson, a Democrat on the districting commission, who expects turnout will rebound in the fall. But primary turnout in 2024 looks similar to 2022 on two of the most populated reservations, the Crow Reservation southeast of Billings and the Blackfeet Reservation along the Rocky Mountain Front. There are 14,762 registered voters between the two. Big Horn County, which includes the Crow Reservation, had the lowest turnout in the state at 23% this year, down 5 percentage points from its 2022 primary turnout of 28%. Glacier County, where the Blackfeet Reservation is located, was 26% — exactly where it was in the 2022 primary preceding a general election in which turnout hit a 20-year low of 38%. There were 431 fewer ballots cast in those counties than in 2022. There were also 422 fewer people registered to vote. The state’s eight majority-Native districts saw the following turnout June 4: House District 15 (portions of the Blackfeet and Flathead reservations) — 718 votes cast in the district’s uncontested Republican primary, and 705 cast in the uncontested Democratic primary. (portions of the Blackfeet and Flathead reservations) — 718 votes cast in the district’s uncontested Republican primary, and 705 cast in the uncontested Democratic primary. House District 16 (portion of the Blackfeet reservation) — 843 votes in a contested Republican primary and 760 votes in an uncontested Democratic primary. (portion of the Blackfeet reservation) — 843 votes in a contested Republican primary and 760 votes in an uncontested Democratic primary. House District 31 (portions of the Fort Belknap and Fort Peck reservations) — 632 votes cast in an uncontested Republican primary and 516 votes cast in a contested Democratic primary. (portions of the Fort Belknap and Fort Peck reservations) — 632 votes cast in an uncontested Republican primary and 516 votes cast in a contested Democratic primary. House District 32 (portions of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy’s reservations) — 708 Republican primary votes and 413 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were uncontested. (portions of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy’s reservations) — 708 Republican primary votes and 413 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were uncontested. House District 41 (portions of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) — 403 Republican primary votes and 370 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were uncontested. (portions of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) — 403 Republican primary votes and 370 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were uncontested. House District 42 (portions of the Crow Reservation) — 771 Republican primary votes and 455 Democratic primary votes. (portions of the Crow Reservation) — 771 Republican primary votes and 455 Democratic primary votes. Senate District 16 (portions of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy’s reservations) — 1,303 votes in an uncontested Republican primary, 977 votes in a contested Democratic primary. (portions of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy’s reservations) — 1,303 votes in an uncontested Republican primary, 977 votes in a contested Democratic primary. Senate District 21 (portions of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) — 1,417 votes in an uncontested Republican primary, 906 votes in a contested Democratic primary. [END] --- [1] Url: https://montanafreepress.org/2024/06/14/can-dems-keep-winning-in-indian-country/?utm_medium=email Published and (C) by Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons CC BY-ND 4.0 International. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailyyonder/