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After the Unexpected Death of Iran’s President, What Comes Next for Iranians and the Region? [1]

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Date: 2024-06 

For some Iranians, the death of hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month was cause for celebration: for years, Raisi had presided over violent crackdowns on perceived dissent and upheld the absolute authority of the regime. The Iranian president’s death also sparked speculation about what comes next for the Islamic Republic, and whether this sudden change in leadership would upset the balance of power domestically and regionally.

President Raisi’s death comes against a backdrop of internal challenges for the Iranian regime, including the continued reverberations of a large-scale protest movement that began in 2022 following the death of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Jina Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s so-called morality police. These antiregime protests posed a momentous challenge to the Iranian theocracy and its clerics, who exert complete ideological and political control over Iran’s governance and state institutions. The poor state of the regime’s legitimacy was further highlighted by parliamentary elections this March, which saw a record low voter turnout of 41 percent.

Despite existing challenges, Iran—which is consistently rated Not Free in Freedom in the World—remains under the tight control of the clerical establishment. Though the death of President Raisi comes as a shock, it ultimately is unlikely to cause significant changes to the regime’s policies or practices. However, Raisi’s death has introduced the potential for further internal unrest, which, if uncontained, could threaten the regime’s hold on Iran and the Iranian people.

Raisi’s rise to the presidency

Prior to becoming president in 2021, Raisi had a decades-long career in the country’s judiciary, rising through the ranks to the powerful position of chief justice and establishing himself as a regime hardliner. In 1988, he served on a commission that allegedly oversaw the executions of some 5,000 political prisoners; decades later, Raisi played a key role in the regime’s fierce crackdown against the 2009–10 Green Movement protests. His violent repression of the political opposition earned him the nickname “the Butcher of Tehran.” As president, Raisi remained ultraconservative and uncompromising, helping to engineer the country’s turn toward a more assertive foreign policy, including by taking a hard-line stance on nuclear talks. Raisi also remained beholden to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, with whom he had a close relationship; many believed that Raisi had been positioned as Khamenei’s heir-apparent.

During Raisi’s presidency, Iran experienced widespread upheaval, largely due to the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, which saw women defy the country’s strict Islamic dress code while protesting the death of Jina Mahsa Amini. These popular antiregime demonstrations sent shockwaves through the system, but also provoked intensified repression: Iranian authorities responded by subjecting nonviolent protesters to mass arrests and executions, sexual violence, torture, and judicial harassment, and with an overall reluctance to acknowledge the shift that was taking place in society. Instead, Raisi’s government accused foreign powers—Israel and the United States, in particular—and opposition parties of fueling this unrest.

In addition to these brutal crackdowns at home, during Raisi’s leadership, Iranian authorities also looked to expand Iranian influence abroad, largely through alliances with armed regional groups and militias commonly referred to as the “axis of resistance,” which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, among others. Iranian authorities also sought to improve relations with old rivals, like Saudi Arabia, and deepen ties with Russia and China. In contrast, relations with the West deteriorated under Raisi’s leadership: American targets in the region were increasingly attacked by Iran-linked groups, and skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah along the Lebanon-Israel border intensified. Though internally the regime grappled with an increasingly secular society, which pitted Iranians against the theocracy, externally the regime startled with its military strategy.

The political impact of Raisi’s death

Perhaps most importantly, Raisi was widely considered to be the top contender for the position of supreme leader following Khamenei’s eventual death. With Raisi’s death, however, Iran’s leadership will need to scramble to find someone else. Following the crash that killed Raisi, Iran’s first vice president Mohammad Mokhber—elected alongside Raisi in 2021 and also seen as close to Khamenei—became interim president. A special presidential election will be held on June 28, in accordance with Iranian law, which requires such elections to be held within 50 days of the president’s death. The vote is not expected to be free or fair; Iran’s hard-line Guardian Council has rejected dozens of potential candidates, thus far approving only six to contest the upcoming election.

Although some have expressed hope that Raisi’s successor will come from a more moderate—or even reformist—background, the institutions that backed Raisi will also determine what comes next, meaning that significant change is unlikely. Despite internal challenges, which now include the sudden death of the president, the regime remains intact and committed to creating a smooth presidential transition. Regionally, Iran is in a position of strength, having especially benefited from the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, which disrupted the Israeli–Saudi normalization process and forced new anti–US and anti-Israel discourse in the region, among other things.

Looking toward the future

While it may seem that the president’s unexpected death would steer Iran toward increased political upheaval, the reality is that Raisi’s position was one of service to the regime—the strength and power of the regime was not tied to Raisi’s presidency, and therefore did not suffer with his death. Despite widespread public discontent with the regime and uncertainty about its political future, the country’s top leaders are committed to ensuring a smooth succession that is in line with Khamenei’s policies. Ultimately, the next president is unlikely to be much different from Raisi.

However, though Raisi’s death alone may not topple the regime, calls for accountability have begun to emerge as Iranian activists demand justice for the pervasive human rights violations committed on the former president’s watch. The celebrations sparked by Raisi’s death illustrate the public’s deep dissatisfaction with the regime, which will be difficult to repair without making fundamental changes to the regime’s governance structure. Without such changes, Raisi’s death could provide an opening for the resurgence of the protest movement despite the risk of a new crackdown on civil society—and if a large antiregime protest movement were to reemerge, the establishment may not be able to contain it. No matter how the future unfolds, the international community must be unwavering in its support for the Iranian people as they continue their fight for freedom and democracy.

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[1] Url: https://freedomhouse.org/article/after-unexpected-death-irans-president-what-comes-next-iranians-and-region

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