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Democracy is at risk in Guatemala, but there is still hope [1]

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Date: 2024-02 

Guatemala’s political future is uncertain since the elections in August, when opposition candidate Bernardo Arévalo won in a surprising landslide. Tensions are rising as 14 January, the date that Arévalo is meant to take office, is fast approaching.

Corrupt political elites are trying hard to prevent his presidency. Yet there has also been unprecedented support for Arévalo from the international community, Guatemala’s economic elite and the majority of the Guatemalan people.

Backlashes to surprising opposition win

Few people had expected Bernardo Arévalo, the son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected president Juan José Arévalo, to win the 2023 elections. The victory of Arévalo, an anti-corruption leader, is telling of the public frustration with the systematic corruption that has characterised Guatemala over the last years.

Corruption has worsened since President Giammattei came to office in 2020 and has tried to preserve elite power. In this he is aided by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, who has adopted a strategy of using the law as a political weapon to prevent investigations into high-level corruption. Over 50 independent justice actors in Guatemala have been criminalised and many forced into prison or exile, based on fabricated accusations.

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Arévalo and his vice-president Karin Herrera are the latest targets of this strategy. Arévalo’s promises to tackle corruption and restore the rule of law are a threat to Guatemala’s political elite. Again, the justice system is being weaponised, this time to prevent the transition of power in January 2024. As a first step, Arévalo’s young opposition party Semilla has been suspended – a decision upheld by the Constitutional Court.

In addition, Attorney General Porras has filed two – unfounded – indictments against Arévalo and Herrera, including one for alleged money laundering and fraud. It is now up to the Supreme Court of Justice to decide whether these accusations provide sufficient grounds for stripping Arévalo and Herrera of their immunity.

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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaabierta/democracy-risk-guatemala-hope-president-elect/

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