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The enduring nature of cranberry production in a changing climate: The interplay of extreme weather, knowledge networks, and adaptation [1]

['Tara L. Pisani Gareau', 'Department Of Earth', 'Environmental Sciences', 'Boston College', 'Chestnut Hill', 'Massachusetts', 'United States Of America', 'Lijing Gao', 'Department Of Sociology', 'Brian J. Gareau']

Date: 2024-06 

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is causing critical issues in agriculture, including cranberry production; however, in a previous study the majority of Massachusetts cranberry growers were less likely to see global warming as a threat than the general US population, and more still reported to be little worried about such warming. This research aims to determine the influence of weather and professional information disseminated to cranberry growers on their climate change adaptation. The authors used a mixed-methods, interdisciplinary approach, including content analysis of around 300 issues of UMass Extension’s Cranberry Station monthly newsletter—a widely trusted source of information in the cranberry grower “network of knowledge”—along with historical weather data from 1974 to 2020, and interview and survey data. Despite infrequent usage of direct communication on climate change and adaptation, UMass Extension’s communication on weather challenges in general showed a small but significant increase when monthly temperature anomalies increased. Meanwhile, anomalous monthly precipitation was negatively associated with total chemical mentions (linked to chemical use behavior). Climate impacts such as increased weeds, water issues (e.g., heavy rainfall, water scarcity), and heat waves ruining harvests were important to growers, leading to the adoption of both conventional (e.g., increased strategic flooding, barge sanding due to lack of ice) and emerging (e.g., smart irrigation, solar panel installations for added income) adaptive strategies. Growers demonstrate climate and technological optimism, believing that other growers are hit worse by climate change than themselves and that cranberry plant resilience, better weather forecasting, and improved irrigation technology will allow them to handle future weather challenges. The prioritization of immediate needs over the more abstract, long-term challenge of climate change by growers and the supporting system underscores the imperative to explore the socio-environmental dynamics that shape their climate responses in cranberry production.

Citation: Pisani Gareau TL, Gao L, Gareau BJ (2024) The enduring nature of cranberry production in a changing climate: The interplay of extreme weather, knowledge networks, and adaptation. PLOS Clim 3(5): e0000350. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000350 Editor: Haoying Wang, New Mexico Tech, UNITED STATES Received: September 2, 2023; Accepted: April 24, 2024; Published: May 28, 2024 Copyright: © 2024 Pisani Gareau et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability: The data used in this study are available in the Supporting Information document entitled S1 Data. Funding: This study was supported by an internal grant, Research Across Departments and Schools (RADS), administered through Boston College's Office of the Vice Provost for Research (awarded to TPG and BG). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction Agricultural production systems in the United States (US) are predicted to be negatively impacted by global climate change through extreme events such as heavy precipitation and drought [1, 2], warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures [3, 4], and via secondary impacts such as a rise in pest pressures and changes in plant and animal phenology [5]. Perennial temperate crops adapted to a cool, moist climate, may be particularly vulnerable to warmer temperatures and erratic precipitation in the Northeastern US, particularly the New England region. A Global Climate Change Impact in the US Report predicts that “[l] arge portions of the Northeast are likely to become unsuitable for growing popular varieties of apples, blueberries, and cranberries under a higher emissions scenario” [6]. We found in a previous study, however, that the majority of cranberry growers in New England do not think global warming is a serious threat to cranberry production and are generally not worried about it [7]. Using additional data and analyses, in this follow-up study we aim to better understand why cranberry growers as a group are not particularly alarmed about global warming. We examine how the University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station, a trusted source of information, has communicated to cranberry growers about climate change since the mid 1970s and how anomalous weather might affect that communication. Given how the climate of New England has already changed, we also aim to understand what, if any, impacts cranberry growers are experiencing and if they are already making changes to their management practices. Successfully adapting to new climate conditions in New England might assuage growers’ concerns about global warming as a threat to production. We draw from literature in the sociology of agriculture on trustworthiness in agricultural “networks of knowledge,” as well as extant literature on cranberry grower socio-ecological networks, to explain our focus on cranberry Extension as a key source of influence in cranberry bog management behavior. Then, using existing weather data, we engage connected literatures in sociology on the agential character of weather in social settings in order to discern whether patterns of information sharing have been affected by the increase in anomalous weather conditions that impact cranberry growing. Finally, drawing from interviews and survey data, we discuss how growers are responding to these large-scale changes in the bogs through adaptation strategies, as well as the connection between those responses and the messaging from Extension via its newsletter. We conclude by calling for future research to explore the feedback loops inherent in the social amplification of climate risk in agriculture, where actions and sentiments within the socio-ecological network can reciprocally influence individual perceptions. The importance of the cranberry to Massachusetts agriculture The American cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon Aiton, is native to the US and southeastern Canada. Commercial cranberry production started in Cape Cod, Massachusetts in the early 1800s and Massachusetts was the number one grower of cranberries until 1998 when Wisconsin surpassed Massachusetts’ production. Cranberries continue to be Massachusetts’ number one commercial crop, bringing in almost $82.16 Million in sales in 2022. The cranberry bog is a unique agricultural production system. In New England, cranberry vines grow in a monoculture within glacier-formed kettle bogs or artificially constructed bogs that have alternating layers of sand (from the cultural practice of sanding the bog every 2–5 years) and organic matter (from decomposition of the leaves and vines). Traditional kettle bogs have a layer of peat below the crop rooting zone that holds vast quantities of water, and carbon. Although cranberry bogs are labeled as wetlands under federal law, cranberry plants cannot withstand prolonged submersion in water while biologically active. Thus, commercial cranberry systems have systems of ditches, dikes, flumes, and pumps to regulate the flow of water on and off the bogs. Historically, cranberries were dry harvested with large wooden scoops and were used for fresh berry consumption. The modern, more efficient wet harvesting technique involves flooding the bog, mechanically raking the vines to free the berries, and collecting the floating berries. Wet harvesting has evolved with advances in water control structures and harvest mechanization. Regional climatic changes that affect the ecology of the cranberry bog A warmer climate presents a series of complications to the cranberry agroecosystem. Average annual air temperature has risen by 0.26°C (0.5°F) per decade since 1970, with winter temperatures increasing at a faster rate [8]. In Massachusetts air temperature is almost 2.0°C (3.6°F) higher than the average temperature between 1900 and 1960 (see Fig 1) [9, 10]. PPT PowerPoint slide

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TIFF original image Download: Fig 1. Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Massachusetts. The orange line represents observed data from 1900–2020. Modeled projected changes include a lower emissions scenario with temperatures at the end of the century reaching 5.0°F plus or minus a few degrees, and a higher emissions scenario with air temperature by 2100 reaching 11.0°F plus or minus a few degrees. Note. Reprinted from Massachusetts State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-MA by Runkle et al. (2022) [10]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000350.g001 Cranberries are particularly susceptible to a warming planet; the plants require a certain number of “chill hours,” hours below 7.2°C (45° F). In fact, “abnormal blossoming has been observed to take place in Massachusetts when [cranberry] plants received less than 1,500 hours (~62 days) below 45°F during the winter” [11]. UMass Extension recommends that cranberries receive 1,500 chill hours to avoid crop failure. Former UMass Extension Director Carolyn DeMoranville (2009) stated that there are no low chill varieties of cranberries (p.73) [12]. A warmer climate advances flowering times in the spring and delays (red) color formation in the fall. Additionally, a warmer climate favors insect, weed, and pathogen population growth, all of which require additional chemical use in conventional growing systems [7, 13]. Unlike annual crops that are reseeded annually, providing growers with flexibility in planting practices and crop or variety choices, cranberry plants are perennial and a long-term investment for cranberry growers. This means that cranberry growers cannot easily migrate north to cooler climates, nor can they switch to more heat tolerant crops without taking a major financial loss. Throughout the Northeast, precipitation has increased in total, has become more intense and more variable from year to year [9]. The ten-year interval of 2005 to 2014 was the wettest on the long-term record (1895–2020) with Massachusetts receiving the largest number of 2-inch precipitation events and on average 5.6 more inches of rain per year [10]. More water can mean more plant growth for both cranberry plants and weeds; however heavy precipitation events that flood bogs during times when the cranberry plants are least tolerant to saturation can injure plants. Warm and wet conditions can also lead to higher occurrence of plant disease, necessitating the need for additional fungicide applications. Seasonality of precipitation is also changing with more of the annual rainfall coming between November and April, and less between May and October [14]. Additionally, Massachusetts experienced extreme drought during 2016–2017 and in 2020 [10]. This all adds up to cranberry growing conditions becoming more complicated for growers, such that adaptation and application of sound growing strategies is growingly important for the success of this historic industry. Extension as a “trusted group” in the cranberry socio-ecological network Like all agricultural growers, cranberry growers operate in a “thoroughly socio-organizational” production network made up of various actors, both ‘social’ (e.g., fellow growers, Extension agents, pest control advisors, neighbors, conservation organizations, local politicians, etc.) and ‘natural’ (e.g., climate conditions, weather patterns, geography, water availability, pests, pathogens, pollinators, etc.), meaning they operate in a dynamic socio-ecological network [15]. Actors interact with one another to construct “networks of knowledge” that support truth claims about the world, particularly, in this context, about agricultural knowledge. This process of sharing experiences and knowledge among a group with similar experiences in agriculture creates a sense of trustworthiness among the networked actors [15–17]. Extension agents have been discussed in the literature as having a profound ability to help shape the knowledge frames of agricultural networks, having earned both the trust of growers as well as being recognized as experts with solutions to problems experienced by growers in the field or bog. By extension, we can argue trustworthiness in grower networks contributes to Extension’s success in disseminating knowledge that leads to particular forms of practice. Providing Extension agents with training in conservation techniques, for example, is identified as an important way to align grower behavior with sustainability practices due to their influence and perceptions of trustworthiness in the network [18–20]. Other research points to Extension as the principal agent capable of addressing “the tension between short-term maladaptive decision factors and longer-term sustainability imperatives” among growers [21]. Other studies argue that “Extension, promotion and marketing programs by government workers … can be positively related to adoption” of promoted environmental and agricultural practices [22–25]. With roughly 400 growers in operation in New England, the cranberry grower social network is both small and tight-knit. For example, too small for any company to produce machinery specific to the cranberry harvest, cranberry growers oftentimes design their own equipment, frequently sharing the equipment and fine-tuning designs with each other’s feedback [26]. The small size also translates into growers having ample opportunity to connect with the small number of Extension agents at the UMass Cranberry Station whose sole job is to help cranberry growers succeed in their production [7]. Gareau et al. [27] showed that the majority of Massachusetts cranberry growers view UMass Extension as an important (we may say trustworthy) actor in their social network. Additionally, Gareau et al. [27] found that cranberry growers who viewed UMass Extension and other cranberry growers as important to their network were more likely to feel worried about climate change than those who did not, but were less likely to view climate change as an existential threat. In this study, we thus aimed to understand the nature of the communication about climate change from UMass Extension. Interplay between natural and social factors Natural actors influence agricultural knowledge networks, necessitating that social actors adapt within their trust patterns in meaningful ways. Far from operating in isolation [7, 13, 15, 27], growers depend on trusted networks to make informed decisions in their fields or bogs. Understanding cranberry growers’ perceptions, adoption, and adaptation to climate-resilient practices requires examining trust and social networks [15], along with the cultural and institutional factors affecting grower decision-making [28, 29]. By adopting an integrated perspective that bridges the gap between the social and natural realms, researchers can better understand the factors influencing cranberry growers’ behavior and contribute to the development of effective, context-sensitive interventions aimed at fostering sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices [30, 31]. Taking seriously the concept of the co-construction of social and natural systems means emphasizing the importance of acknowledging the entanglements between human and non-human actors in cranberry production [32, 33]. These entanglements include the interdependencies between growers, Extension agents, and the broader ecological systems. Freudenberg et al.’s [34] critique of the nature/society divide in social theory encourages scholars to investigate socio-environmental dynamics that shape growers’ responses to climate-induced challenges. Evidence suggests that growers can adopt adaptive and mitigating actions without engaging specific causation assumptions related to climate change. Growers may unconsciously adapt to climate change in their daily practices for various reasons. These reasons include observing shifts in weather patterns, responding to other agricultural stressors, relying on traditional knowledge or intergenerational experience, seeking to improve productivity and resilience, and implementing risk management strategies [35–45]. This is in line with previous studies that conclude growers’ decisions to adapt are dependent on their unique experiences and observations on their property, as well as their interpretations of changing weather and climate conditions [40, 41, 46, 47]. The urgency for sustainable practices has prompted some growers to adopt various adaptation strategies, such as using climate forecasting to reduce production risk and manage water resources [48–50]. However, whether cranberry growers adapt in similar ways remains an unanswered question. Indeed, there is a research gap concerning the adaptation strategies employed specifically by cranberry growers in response to climate change. Investigating this area could provide valuable insights for the cranberry industry and contribute to developing tailored adaptation approaches for wetland agriculture systems more broadly defined. Research questions To understand the influence of social and natural factors on how cranberry growers are experiencing and adapting to climate change pressures, we addressed the following research questions: How has UMass Extension engaged growers in conversations about climate change and adaptation over time? How has anomalous weather influenced Extension’s communication about conditions and practices in cranberry growing over time? How have changes in climate impacted cranberry production, and how are growers adapting?

Materials and methods We used a mixed-methods, interdisciplinary approach including four data sources: UMass Extension’s Cranberry Station monthly newsletters published between 1974 and 2020, regional climate data collected at Blue Hill Observatory from 1974 to 2020, a 2016 survey of cranberry growers, and in-depth interviews with eighteen growers conducted between 2012 and 2018 (See S1 Data for access to data files). Ethics statement This research complies with ethical practices and was approved by the Boston College Institutional Review Board (Protocol numbers 12.139.01e and 12.139.01eA). Survey respondents were solicited to participate in the survey in two ways, either online or via hard copy. The online consent form explained the nature of the study prior to answering questions, and a hard copy of the consent form was provided as part of the survey form. Interviewees gave verbal consent prior to conducting each interview. UMass Extension Cranberry Station newsletters To characterize the explicit and implicit dialogue on climate change and adaptation disseminated from the UMass Cranberry Extension, we used monthly newsletters published by the station between 1974 and 2020. Issues published in 1974–2001 were acquired in physical form from the UMass Cranberry Station in Wareham, MA, digitized, and imported into NVivo for content analysis. Issues published from 2002–2020 were downloaded directly from the UMass Cranberry Station website and similarly uploaded into NVivo. We then performed both summative and conventional content analyses around themes of climate change, weather extremes, agrochemical use, cultural practices, and biological actors (insect pests, weed pests, pathogens, and bees). We summed the number of mentions of “climate change” and mentions of a “warming” climate versus language related to extreme weather conditions (“drought,” “hail,” “hurricane,” and “storm”) to characterize UMass Extension’s dissemination of knowledge around climate change impacts to cranberry production. Regional climate data The Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA, USA has recorded monthly temperature highs, lows, and means and total monthly precipitation since 1891 [51]. While most Massachusetts cranberry bogs are located 30–80 miles southeast of the weather station, the long-term dataset accurately characterizes climate trends in the entire state. We are interested in both the general trend of precipitation and temperature over time and the effects of anomalous temperature and precipitation months and years. Annual temperature has gotten increasingly warmer, with the warmest years on record occurring within the past decade. Precipitation has also been increasing, although there are more fluctuations between wet and dry years and precipitation events are becoming more concentrated. Long-term climate graphs of the region are available on the Blue Hill Observatory website [51]. Survey To recruit cranberry grower participation in a survey, we aimed to reach the entire cranberry grower population (estimated at around 400) with a multi-pronged approach. The UMass Cranberry Station emailed the online survey solicitation to its member listserv in January, February, and April of 2016 and the authors ran a half-page advertisement with a link to the survey in the Cape Cod Cranberry Growers Association’s (CCCGA) Bogside newsletter from February to June of 2016. We also did two direct mailings of the survey advertisement in February and April and direct mailing with a hard copy of the survey and a return envelope with paid postage in November of 2016. Each successive mailing excluded growers who had already submitted responses. In total, we received 91 responses (23% response rate) between the dates of 31 January and 24 December 2016. The survey instrument is described in Gareau et al. [7, 27]. To characterize growers’ perceptions of climate change threats, we asked growers to rate the importance of the following pressures over the past 5 to 10 years: water scarcity, water competition, heavy precipitation, extended high temperatures in the summer, extended high temperatures in the fall, insufficient chill hours in the winter, importance of insect pests, importance of weed pests, and importance of disease. We asked a related question, “which of the following specific weather-related events severely impacted your cranberry production from 2010- present?” providing the choices, “high precipitation in a short amount of time, drought, summer heat wave (temperature above 90 for several days), warmer winter, hail or sudden frost event, and ‘other’.” Participants could choose more than one weather-related event. We also asked cranberry growers two open-ended questions: “What has changed over the years to make it harder to prepare for weather-related events that impact your cranberry production?” and; “What has changed over the years to make it easier to prepare for weather-related events that impact your cranberry production?” For factors that make it harder to prepare for weather-related events, we coded responses into the following categories: large storms/increased rainfall, warmer than normal, inaccurate forecasting/information, unpredictability of the weather, reduced precipitation/drought, accessibility of water resources, frost, factors unrelated to weather or the environment, and nothing/no impact. For factors that make it easier to prepare for weather-related events, we coded responses into the following categories: better forecasting and information services, technology improvements, improvements to water infrastructure, wisdom that comes with experience, and unrelated to weather or the environment. Participants mentioned one or more factors for both questions. Interviews with cranberry growers We conducted 18 in-depth interviews with cranberry growers between 2012 to 2018. Some of the interviews were conducted by undergraduate and graduate researchers trained by the authors in research method techniques, others were conducted by the first author. The interviewers visited with cranberry growers, often at their bogs, to ask them about their bog management, the impact of climate change and weather-related events on their cranberry production, and their concerns and approaches to adaptation. While the interview schedule was open-ended, interviewers asked pointed questions regarding the challenges faced by the Massachusetts cranberry industry, and how they are responding to environmental and social challenges such as water quality, climate change, and competition from future generations. Around fourteen pointed questions were asked, ranging from the history of each bog to the family or individual’s relationship to the bog, their predictions for the future in both social and environmental aspects, economic hardships, and their cultural aspects of cranberry farming that they find enticing. Interviews were conducted in a conversational manner with a loose interview guide, and participants were assured of anonymity through the use of pseudonyms. The interviews were digitally recorded, and consent forms (approved by the authors’ University Institutional Review Board) were used to inform all participants that, if agreeable to them, interviews would be recorded, transcribed, and used in future publications. After each interview, the recordings were analyzed using Dedoose [52] and NVivo software programs. Additionally, the researchers kept field notes journals to make observations on what was seen and experienced. The 18 interviews conducted with cranberry growers, within a total population of 400, provide valuable context and depth to our survey data collected from 91 growers. The 18 interviewed growers and 91 surveyed growers were not mutually exclusive groups. Data analysis To examine how climate conditions have shaped UMass Extension’s communication on climate change and bog management to growers, we analyzed the UMass Cranberry Station’s monthly newsletter, together with historical weather data for the years 1974 to 2020 provided by Michael J. Iacono, Chief Scientist at The Blue Hill Observatory [51]. We calculated whether a given year’s total precipitation and mean temperature was anomalous by subtracting the monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature data to the 10-yr mean value. We calculated the precipitation and temperature anomalies as the absolute deviation from the 10-year mean, a common method in anomaly assessments [53, 54]. The 10-year reference is defined by averaging precipitation and temperatures over specific years. We used the word count of the newsletters as a control variable. Over 46 years, the newsletter has a general trend of getting longer. During that time span, the shortest newsletter contains 234 words, the longest 10,694 words. To change the largely different values to a common scale while keeping the differences in the ranges, we normalized the word count variable, resulting in obtaining normalized continuous word count data. Then, we cut the continuous word count variable evenly into 5 categories to make it useful as a control variable. Next, we calculated how many times on average keywords were mentioned per newsletter issue, and then compared them across years with different climatic conditions. We examined the utilization of four main categories of agrochemicals: herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and fertilizers. These chemical categories address various biological responses such as weed control, insect management, pathogen and fungus protection, disease prevention, as well as the safety of bees and other pollinators. To clarify, herbicides (e.g. Callisto) are used to control unwanted plants or weeds, insecticides (e.g. Chlorpyrifos) target insects that may harm cranberry crops, fungicides (e.g. Chlorothalonil) protect against fungal infections, and fertilizers (e.g. Phosphate) provide essential nutrients to support crop growth. We also investigated the broad category of weather challenges that includes the terms: frost, drought, extreme heat, winter kill, storm, and hail. Each broad category includes mentions of related keywords. For example, the keyword category of herbicides includes the word “herbicide” as well as specific brands of herbicides, similarly for the categories of insecticides and fungicides (see Codebook in the supplementary materials for details). In total, we assembled 14 dependent variables: 1) total chemicals; 2) total insect pests; 3) total weather challenges; 4) total weather; 5) total pollination; 6) total herbicides; 7) total insecticides; 8) total fungicides; 9) total bog management; 10) total weeds; 11) total pathogens; 12) total fruits; 13) total soils; 14) total social organization. The categories for the dependent variables are ordinal, thus an ordinal logistic regression was preferable [55]. In this research, we employed ordinal logistic regression (OLR) models to investigate the associations between the temperature anomaly, precipitation anomaly, and the normalized word count in the newsletter and the total newsletter coverage of chemicals, weather challenge, soil, and bog management. OLR employs a proportional-odds cumulative logits model with ordered variables. Of the five response categories, “0 mention of the specific dependent variable” was coded as the reference category. Therefore, our equation was as follows: Here, α i is an intercept parameter, which could vary for different i, β is the vector of slope parameters, and it is the same for different levels (i) of the ordinal dependent variable. X are the independent variables, including the temperature anomaly, precipitation anomaly, and normalized word count. Y are the dependent variables, which measure the total newsletter coverage as measured by the five-point ordinal scale. To test the relationship between growers’ experience of extreme weather events and their perception of the importance of climatic changes, we ran simple linear regressions using the survey data. For the variable selection, we used stepwise regression [56] as a method to add or remove variables from the model based on their statistical significance. The process begins with an initial set of predictors, typically chosen based on previous research or expertise in the area of study [57–59]. The process is then repeated, with the remaining variables, until all variables in the model have a p-value below a certain threshold (usually 0.05). Then, we used the same set of independent variables to predict the dependent variables. We used cross-validation and model assessment to ensure that the final models are robust and generalizable. The sample met the homogeneity of variance, independence, and normality assumption. Following the formula of where y is the predicted value of the dependent variable (y) for any given independent variable (x) value. y including growers’ rate of extreme weather events in the last 5–10 years, from Q32-Q40, including water scarcity, competition for water, heavy precipitation, extended high temperatures in the summer, extended high temperatures in the fall, insufficient chill hours, insect pests, weed pests, disease. β0 is the intercept, while β1 is the regression coefficient. x is the independent variable. In this research, x including grower’s crop diversity—whether they just grew cranberries or have other crops or livestock in their farm management; Proportion of upland habitat in total land acre; total acres; Drought severely impacted your cranberry production from 2010- Present; Summer heat wave (temperature above 90 for several days) severely impacted respondents’ cranberry production from 2010- present. ∈ is the error term. Qualitative data analysis. In our analysis of interview data, we employed a qualitative research method, specifically thematic analysis [60], to enhance our understanding of the complex relationships between environmental conditions, cultural practices, and cranberry production. Thematic analysis allowed us to systematically identify, analyze, and report patterns or themes within the data, providing a rich and detailed account of the key issues and concerns faced by cranberry growers in the context of climate change [61]. We first conducted an inductive open coding process to identify emerging themes [62], such as changes in growing practices, ecological changes, and opinions on climate change. Subsequently, we organized these themes into higher-order categories, such as adaptation strategies (e.g., irrigation practices, late water, pesticide use, and sanding practices) and impacts of climate change (e.g., effects on cranberry growth, berry quality, phenology, and yield). By incorporating these qualitative research methods into our analysis, we provide a more comprehensive, nuanced understanding of the challenges cranberry growers face in response to climate change and potential adaptation strategies that could be employed to ensure the industry’s resilience and sustainability.

Results from interviews As mentioned, we spoke directly to growers firstly to discover how cranberry growers perceive the threat of, and are adapting to, climate change in their production. We expected that growers would speak mostly about issues surrounding water access since fresh water is critical to cranberry production and the region has experienced disruptive droughts in 2012 and 2016. However, as one of the interviewees mentioned, “water is not a problem provided one can get rid of it and has access to it when needed.” Growers were more likely to discuss changes to air temperature than experiencing water deficits or extreme rainfall events. A warming New England means delaying fruit coloration in the fall, disrupting winter dormancy, and increasing the risk of frost damage in the spring. We also discovered in our interviews that several growers had already experienced yield loss to extreme weather events or expressed concern about potential yield loss. We explain these impacts below, and provide illustrative quotes from the growers we interviewed. Several growers discussed how a warming fall is delaying cranberry fruit coloration. Warm days and cool evenings in the fall trigger the cranberry plants’ production of anthocyanin pigments, which give the fruit its characteristic red color as well as its many health benefits. Red cranberries are more appealing to consumers and thus have a higher market value. Since companies like Ocean Spray pay a premium for redder berries, growers may need to adjust their harvest times or receive a lower price for lighter colored berries. As “Sandra” (2012) noted, “One of the things that we have found is because we don’t get those really cold nights in September and October, which is the harvest time, the color of the berries is not reddening up the way it used to. Ocean Spray pays a premium for a redder berry.” Some growers reported significant delays in harvest times; for example, “Duke” (2018) mentioned a mid-October harvest, while “Mike” (2018) observed, "For the last two years, … we finished harvest November 3rd, November 4th, and I used to finish up before Halloween.” This change in harvest timing, as evidenced by our interviews, exemplifies the impact of climate change on cranberry farming. Another impact of a warmer-than-average fall is the potential to interrupt winter dormancy for next year’s buds, which are on the vines along with the ripening fruit. Interrupting the winter dormancy of next year’s cranberry buds may result in the physiological development of the buds when they should be quiescent. This can then put them at risk of frost damage when the nights do become cold. The comment from “Duke” (2018) below underscores the importance of understanding the physiological impacts of climate change on a temperate perennial plant that is dependent on a long period of cool to cold temperatures: We’re learning just as we are adapting to these changes… Right now for example the plants should be going into dormancy, really deep dormancy, in essence to sleep. And, we’ve seen the plants have not gone into dormancy, as they should be, because of the warm temperatures. So, as a result of that we’re very concerned about the fact that if we do quickly change to extremely cold temperatures, the bud of the vine itself could be damaged and impact the crop for next year. Interviewees routinely expressed concern that warm spring temperatures make the cranberry bog more vulnerable to frost damage. When cranberry buds are dormant, they can tolerate freezing temperatures. Once the buds break dormancy and begin to develop, the threshold temperature when damage occurs increases. Growers manage potential damage caused by frost with overhead sprinkler irrigation. As the water freezes on the plants, heat is released in the phase change, which protects the buds from damage. “Mike” (2018) mentioned that, after a spring warm spell, temperatures returned to normal, leading to a high frequency of frost events. The growers had to constantly protect their crops from frost damage, resulting in physical and mental fatigue: We had a very warm February and March. And then, we went into normal temperatures and we frosted. I remember, we would frost like 25 nights. We were walking around like zombies cuz it was just non-stop [work]. Several growers relayed stories of yield loss due to extreme temperature and precipitation events. During periods of high heat and low humidity, cranberry fruits can develop scald damage, which appears as a circular area of tissue damage. Cranberries at the top of the canopy with greater exposure to sunlight are more likely to experience scald, as well as berries in a bog with sparse vegetation- a thicker vegetative canopy shades and protects berries from scald damage [63]. Fruits with scald are more susceptible to infection from a variety of pathogens that ultimately cause the fruit to rot. “Jeannie” (2018) explained the financial loss due to sunscald: “Last year we had a $200,000 loss because 15 percent of the vines were too close to the ground without enough coverage. Berries that touched the sand and exposed were burnt by the sun.” “William” (2018) described how heavy rainfall led to field rot in his bog, reducing the quality of the crop. Concerned that his harvest would be rejected by the supplier, he decided to forgo the cost of transporting the berries and discarded them on his property: So I watched it rain and I kept–I was going in and out. I mean, it rained heavy all day…I didn’t notice it until I went out to flag for harvest, then I noticed I had a lot of rot. They [cranberries] get that butterscotch color where they’re a little bit translucent,–and I knew I might’ve been able to ship them in, but if I got my loader rejected, then I’d have to pay for the trucking back, and then we’d have to unload them and dump them. And I said I don’t want to do that. This situation demonstrates how extreme weather events, such as receiving heavy rain that inundates the bog while the flowers or fruits are present, can have a devastating effect on cranberry yields, resulting in significant financial losses for growers. Another grower, “Emily” (2018), described her anxiety of yield loss due to the possible late arrival of pollination services. Cranberry bogs require one to three honey bee hives per acre of bog to ensure sufficient pollination [64]. For this service, the majority of cranberry growers rent commercial honey bee hives, which follow a travel route—sometimes across the country—based on crops’ blooming times. Since cranberries are later to bloom than other fruit crops, they are typically last to be served. However, warmer than normal winter and spring temperatures are causing the cranberry plants to start accumulating degree day units earlier in the year, which can advance the bloom time [65]. If honey bees arrive late to the bloom period and cranberry blooms are not adequately pollinated by resident wild bees, yields will suffer. Emily’s comment, below, illustrates how climate change can influence the timing of natural processes and disrupt the synchrony between plant bloom and pollinator availability, ultimately affecting crop yield. [L]ast year it got warm really early so everything was 2 weeks ahead, and so my bees didn’t arrive until I was well into bloom and I thought, alright I’m going to miss half my crop. Emily pointed out how the nation-wide industry of ‘hiring’ bees for pollination is in flux: “Where are they [the bees]? My bog’s in bloom- I need them!” Adaptive strategies Survey results. Responses to the survey question, “what has changed over the years to make it easier to prepare for weather-related events?” provide some insight on adaptation strategies. We found high agreement around two main themes: better forecasting, and technology advances (Fig 4). The types of technological advances growers mentioned included automated irrigation systems, weather applications, and cell phones. Ten percent of respondents mentioned improving the water infrastructure of the bog to be able to better access and divert water. Illustrative responses of these themes are reported in S3 Table. In general, growers were optimistic about their ability to control bog conditions with more accurate weather information and technological advancements in bog management. PPT PowerPoint slide

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TIFF original image Download: Fig 4. Percentage of responses (N = 54) that answered the open-ended question, “What has changed over the years to make it easier to prepare for weather-related events?”. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000350.g004 Sixty-six percent of the growers who responded to the survey question, “which of the following management practices have you implemented on your bog in the last 5–10 years?” chose the option “Smart irrigation and/or frost alarm.” This technology uses soil moisture and air temperature sensors to trigger an automated irrigation system, which reduces the labor involved to check irrigation heads, turn on sprinklers, and monitor weather forecasts. Smart irrigation is responsive to the localized soil conditions and microclimate of the cranberry bog, helping farmers to conserve water while making spring frost management more manageable. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that growers with more acreage (S4 Table) and who reported being impacted with summer heatwaves (S5 Table), were more likely to report adoption of modernized irrigation systems (B = 0.022, p<0.05; B = 1.339, p<0.05). Results from interviews. Based on our interviews with cranberry growers, it is clear that adaptation to climate change is taking place across the sector, regardless of individual beliefs about climate change. We categorized the adaptation practices of these growers into two primary groups: conventional practices and emerging practices. Conventional practices encapsulate the time-honored methods traditionally employed by cranberry growers to navigate the various challenges of their industry. Emerging practices, on the other hand, represent a turn towards newer innovations that growers have either already adopted or are contemplating adopting. Emerging practices include using precision techniques like smart irrigation with sensors, purchasing crop insurance, incorporating solar energy in the farm, planting new cranberry varieties, and altering marketing strategies. In the next sections we highlight quotes representing conventional and emerging practices towards adaptation. Conventional practices. Growers universally emphasized water management, using various techniques like strategic winter flooding, late water, and early irrigation to modulate the bog temperature. They perceived water as a critical resource for adapting to climate change, using it to cool bogs during unseasonably warm periods. Growers reported using water to manage warmer than normal temperatures on the bog or applying water early in the morning, illustrated in the following quotes: That’s why some of the growers will be watching the bogs now and if we start heading into some 50 degree days [at the end of March], they will put water back on, because water will actually keep the bog cooler, and so they won’t experience those warm temperatures. (Ruth, 2012) We irrigate less time, but more frequently so that we have enough water for the roots to be able to get water to those berries. And there’s kind of a rule of thumb. If the humidity and the temperature add up to more than 150, you’re at a high risk for scald. (Keith, 2018) I try if it’s going to be a hot day like that, I try and water. You know, like I go at it like 4:30 in the morning and start it, and run it until the sun comes up, and then it’s wet through the day. (William, 2018) Barge sanding is an adaptive strategy to conventional ice sanding. As “William” (2018) stated, “So basically my substitute for the ice that we don’t get…would be the boats, which is what I used this year.” Barge sanding still delivers the benefits of sanding, which includes stimulating new shoot and root growth and managing disease and insect pests. However, about one third of the growers we interviewed have reduced the frequency they sand, perhaps because they don’t have access to a barge sander. For example, “Pamela” (2018) said, "We are probably not anxious to sand until … I don’t know … I can’t. There’s no point in putting inputs if you can’t recover [them].” Growers also used weather forecasts to inform their bog management strategies, which is in alignment with survey respondents. In this example, “Keith” (2018) reported using his cell phone to access reliable weather information, which allows him to monitor bog conditions remotely: Sometimes if everything’s running good and it’s kind of a marginal night, I’ll just stay in and just check my phone every hour or so. If it’s a hard frost, a black frost, sometimes the pumps won’t shut off, and that’s once a season that happens. Cranberry growers in Massachusetts enjoy robust support from a variety of research institutes, equipped with the latest knowledge in fields like chemistry, plant biology, and hydrology. Based on our interview data, every grower reported some level of interaction with Extension professionals from institutions such as the University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station, University of Maine, and Rutgers University in New Jersey. Some growers work with an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) specialist to manage their cranberry bog’s specific needs and regulatory requirements. A key figure in this “knowledge network,” Carolyn DeMoranville, the former director of the UMass Cranberry Station, was frequently referenced by our interviewees. The following statement indicates the breadth and depth of the support network available to cranberry growers, demonstrating the comprehensive approach they take in adapting to climate change impacts: You should go around there, and talk to… Carolyn DeMoranville, she’s done incredible things as far as research. [The Cranberry Station has] a bunch of little bogs out back where they test different things… There are also entomologists on staff there, and if you are having problems with your bogs, you can take your samples down to them and they’ll analyze them for you… There’s a really good support system that I’ve never seen with a vegetable grower. (Melissa, 2012) Some growers leveraged natural elements of the bog, such as growing stems longer to provide a natural canopy for fruits or using snow as insulation, for additional protection against variable weather patterns. For example, interviewees talked about the importance of snow in cranberry production, one dubbing it the “poor man’s fertilizer.” Emerging practices. Most growers reported using precision or automated irrigation systems, which offer increased efficiency and control. One grower’s comment illustrates how growers use the sprinkler systems in combination with a frost warning system to prevent frost damage to new buds: But the thing is, once they [cranberry buds] come out, if you do that spring flooding, the buds are very, very, very tender. Much more susceptible to the cold weather so there’s, there’s an experiment station down in Wareham and they put out frost warning, you can sign up for it, and they’ll tell you according to their bog down there what the tolerance is for the buds in the spring. And say it’s at you know 28 degrees, I was running my sprinklers at like 30, 32 just to be on the safe side, so until they went into bloom then you’re good. (Emily, 2012) Growers interviewed in 2012 revealed the potential for catastrophic loss due to a single frost night and cited crop insurance as a safety net. Fast-forward to 2018, we found 80% of the interviewees have adopted crop insurance as a means to hedge against unpredictable weather patterns and associated crop failures. Only one grower chose not to opt for it due to personal disbelief in its benefits. Interestingly, 60% of the 2018 participants are considering the installation of solar systems on their bogs as an additional revenue source. “Pamela” (2018) shared, "we have signed an agreement to put some solar panels up on 5 acres, all solar panels, they will go behind the bogs." Given Massachusetts’ ambitious renewable energy goals and limited available land [66], solar systems on the bogs present a dual-benefit solution—generating income and contributing to the state’s energy goals, thereby providing resilience against fluctuating crop yields and prices. Although advances in plant breeding were not discussed in our 2012 interviews, data from our 2018 interviews indicate that all participants have gradually transitioned towards hybrid cranberry varieties. Furthermore, five growers highlighted the ongoing development of new varieties, demonstrating their close attention to advancements in the field. As “Ted” (2018) noted, "so they did a lot of work at Rutgers on new varieties." According to research from Rutgers University, these newer cranberry varieties offer a range of improvements. These include increased productivity, adjusted ripening times, better fruit quality, and greater tolerance of environmental stresses. Varieties like ‘Crimson Queen,’ ‘Mullica Queen,’ and ‘Demoranville’ are particularly noted for their increased heat tolerance, a vital trait as a warming climate with summer heat waves can lead to more heat stress and disease occurrence on plants [67]. However, it’s important to note that our research did not find evidence indicating these new Rutgers cranberry varieties have reduced chilling hour requirements. In response to the reduced red tinting in cranberries in warm falls, growers discussed the changing color standards in the industry. “Lucy” (2012) reported that "Ocean Spray pays a premium for a redder berry." While “Keith” (2018) commented: “[T]he berries never got red enough. But then again, Ocean Spray has changed their standards; they want less color. There’s a sweet spot." Optimism While growers expressed concern about extreme weather, they also showed optimism for the future of cranberry production in Massachusetts, especially when it came to their own production. Growers rationalize that if cranberries are growing in regions with a warmer climate than their own, they can be grown successfully in their own region. Growers also consider the cranberry to be a resilient plant. “William” (2018), for example, expressed optimism and resilience by highlighting the unique coastal conditions of Cape Cod that counteract some of the impacts of climate change: It’s always been a little bit unique on the Cape [Cape Cod, MA]. So they’ll [referring to mainland growers] be colder in the winter and you’ve got the sea breeze keeping us a little warmer in the winter… So even if it warms up, it’s never going to be as warm as it is off-Cape… So I don’t see how it’s going to adversely affect the Cape growers. But off-Cape growers may have a different feeling, because they’re already hot now. “Austin” (2012) demonstrated a "wait and see" strategy, with a willingness to adapt when necessary: I haven’t seen global warming, let’s say climate change, hasn’t affected me that much. I don’t know, there are those that say the climate is getting warmer. I guess whatever you just said is close to true. But it hasn’t affected me yet. “Margaret”, cranberry bog owner, and “Isaac,” the field manager of Margaret’s bog, both expressed confidence in the adaptability of cranberries to different climate conditions, emphasizing the resilience of both the plants and the growers to cope with changing temperatures and other environmental challenges: There’s a lot that we can control even though there’s still a lot we can’t. … “If cranberries can grow in New Jersey… I don’t see that it will be a problem here. As long as we get cold nights, which we always do. We get more cold nights than New Jersey, right? (Margaret, 2018) I don’t know about the weeds but I can tell you this, the cranberry is very adaptive to temperatures… And, the newer varieties that they’re planting around here, they’re doing very well. (Isaac, 2018) Here, the interplay of social-natural relations in the cranberry growers’ lives, reinforced by the trusted UMass Extension in the knowledge network, has resulted in general confidence that a warmer climate can be approached with optimism for the cranberry industry in New England.

Discussion We set out to understand why cranberry growers express little concern over global warming, when they are stewards of a native perennial cropping system whose geographic range is limited to the northeast and northwest of the US. In the face of climate change, moving the agroecosystem is not an option for these growers whose bogs are interwoven into the landscape of southern Massachusetts. Switching to another crop that is more adapted to a warmer climate, as growers of annual crops might do, is also not a viable option for ecological reasons (a cranberry bog is a wetland with acidic soil) and economic reasons (their equipment is specific to cranberry production and they contract with cranberry distributors). One might expect that cranberry growers would be even more concerned about global warming than the average American as their livelihoods depend on maintaining this unique production system that is geographically bound. We have discovered in this study that cranberry growers are indeed experiencing the impacts of a warmer, wetter, and more extreme climate in the northeast, even to the point of yield loss. However, cranberry growers remain optimistic about the future of cranberry production in Massachusetts due to the interplay of knowledge from one of their most trusted sources (UMass Cranberry Station), the resilience of the cranberry plant, and adaptation strategies that they and the industry itself are adopting. The UMass Cranberry Station, a branch of UMass Cooperative Extension dedicated exclusively to supporting Massachusetts cranberry growers, has been somewhat quiet about explicitly addressing climatic change and its impacts on cranberry production. However, the communication strategy of Extension concerning climate change likely reflects the complexities involved in climate science communication in agriculture more broadly, the perceived political sensitivity of the topic [68], as well as the real-world constraints and priorities of the growers they serve. Indeed, the UMass Cranberry Station employs a diversified strategy in communicating with cranberry producers about events connected to climatic changes. The Cranberry Station’s routine newsletters are conduits for management counsel, research updates, and other salient details. Their online portal is a reservoir of research insights, industry best practices, news, and event announcements. For decades, a telephonic information system, in concert with entities like the Cape Cod Cranberry Growers’ Association (CCCGA), has provided timely weather predictions and infrastructure operation insights. The Station’s interactive workshops and webinars give producers knowledge of novel techniques and a platform for queries. Furthermore, their conferences and field days, occurring at regular intervals, offer producers the chance to network and gain expertise from leading figures. The Station disseminates extensive research findings, guides, and other vital references regarding publications. Personalized consultations, whether face-to-face, via call, or email, are available based on our interviews. Additionally, regular training endeavors spearheaded by the Cranberry Station enlighten producers about emergent techniques and pertinent subjects. This comprehensive set of communication techniques puts Extension in an important position to inform the entire cranberry network about climate adaptation strategies via weather events and other issues. The communication of climate change science is a highly politicized issue in the US and can lead to polarized responses [69]. While scientists widely agree on the reality of human-induced climate change, this consensus is not mirrored in public opinion, especially in agricultural social circles. Extension services may be wary of alienating their audience or sparking contentious debate. Secondly, the focus on immediate weather events, such as frost damage, storms, and droughts, instead of the broader context of climate change, may reflect the pressing needs and priorities of the growers, not to mention the limited mandate of Extension. Growers often deal with immediate and observable issues. For them, the practical management of acute weather events can be more pressing than the longer-term, abstract problem of climate change [70–72]. The consistent link discovered in our analysis between anomalous weather events and the advisory content from the UMass Cranberry Station does suggest an implicit recognition of changing environmental conditions. This might indicate an indirect approach to the issue, focusing on observable effects rather than the controversial cause, and explain why growers who view UMass Extension as an important part of their network, are more concerned about global warming than other growers [7, 27]. The reticence to address the broader issue of climate change could also reflect a perceived lack of resources or preparedness to provide appropriate advice. Climate adaptation advice needs to be locally relevant, actionable, and based on solid research. If such research is lacking or still in progress, the extension service might be reluctant to offer explicit advice. From an environmental communication perspective, there is a pressing need for more explicit and proactive communication about climate change, especially in sectors like agriculture. UMass Extension does communicate robustly about weather challenges. In fact, we found a significant relationship between months with anomalous average temperature as recorded by the nearby Blue Hill Observatory and mentions about weather challenges, such as frost damage, storm events, drought, and more. In other words when the weather gets abnormally hot and cold, Extension talks about the impacts and how growers might manage them, but not in the context of global warming or climate change. Nature, thereby, has agency to influence the conversation in knowledge networks [15, 73]. Extension’s reticence to go beyond weather and talk about the changes to the regional climate that will only get more intense in the coming decades, may relate to perceived unpreparedness and lack of resources to provide advice [74]. It was clear from our survey and interview data that cranberry growers are already feeling the impacts of climate change. Growers consider higher than normal temperatures the most impactful influence of climate change. Higher temperatures in the spring can jumpstart the development of the plants, bringing them prematurely out of winter dormancy. Cranberry buds become increasingly vulnerable to frost as they develop [75]. If the bog is not covered in an insulating layer of snow, growers protect developing buds from frost damage by turning on their irrigation, oftentimes in the middle of the night. The more frost nights there are, the more sleepless nights they experience, which causes strain on growers. Warmer than normal temperatures in the fall create other problems including an increase in scald damage leading to fruit rot and a delay in the reddening of the fruit, which gives the tart fruit its nutritional and market value. The cranberry harvest is being pushed back several weeks, which can affect labor and equipment costs. In terms of warmer wintertime temperatures, we thought cranberry growers would be concerned about cranberry plants not achieving sufficient chill hours, however that risk ranked low for most of the growers we surveyed and no one we interviewed talked about their cranberry plants not being able to accumulate sufficient chill hours. The more universal impact of warmer winters was a reduction in ice sanding, which is the preferred approach for rejuvenating cranberry plant growth and managing a number of pests. Despite these impacts, cranberry growers consider the cranberry plant to be resilient to extreme weather. As one grower put it, “we’ve been hit with everything, and they’re still producing well.” The cranberry bog agroecosystem also has some features that might make it more resilient to climate change than other cropping systems. First, cranberry bogs have the ecological advantage of being able to store a lot of water, which comes in handy during droughts and heatwaves. The unprecedented heatwave in the Pacific Northwest in June of 2021, which reached the hottest worldwide temperature recorded north of 45° latitude, caused substantial yield loss in a number of commercial crops, with the exception of cranberries which yielded only 2% less than predicted and 10% higher than the average yield for 2011–2021 [76]. Secondly, cranberry bogs are embedded in a larger landscape of forest, ponds, and streams. For every acre of managed cranberry bog, growers typically manage several more acres of upland and wetland habitat [64]. The matrix surrounding the cranberry bog likely provides a natural defense against extreme weather events, which might explain why cranberry growers who have access to larger amounts of natural habitat relative to their farm size are less likely to consider global warming as a serious threat [7]. Cranberry growers are also adopting new technology and modifying their bogs and practices to respond to a changing environment. Over 60% of growers in our survey reported adopting automated irrigation systems with sensors that measure air temperature and soil moisture and transmit data to their cell phones. Not only do these “smart” irrigation systems conserve water, they save growers time and anxiety in activating irrigation during frost events or dry periods. The adoption of automated irrigation systems increases growers’ ability to modify the microclimate of the bog, which might lessen their concern over larger scale climatic changes. A second critical adaptation strategy is the adoption of second generation cranberry varieties (e.g. ‘Mullica Queen,’ ‘Crimson Queen,’ ‘DeMoranville’ and ‘Vasanna’) that yield three to more times greater than natives and first generation varieties [77]. While yield loss has been reported by growers in our study, since the 1970s cranberry yield per acre has increased with yields reaching or surpassing 150 barrels per acre in 12 out of the past 15 years despite record breaking heat (Fig 5). New varieties are the driving force behind this trend. The additional yield of new varieties provides yet another buffer against climate change and demonstrates that cranberry production will endure in a warming climate. PPT PowerPoint slide

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TIFF original image Download: Fig 5. Annual yield in barrels per acre from Massachusetts cranberry bogs from 1971 to 2022. One barrel weighs 100 pounds. Data are from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Non Citrus Fruits and Nuts annual summary reports. Red shaded bars are among the ten warmest years on the meteorological record [51]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000350.g005 As cranberry growers adapt to climate change by employing smart irrigation technologies, a shift in their experience of climate, nature, and their connection to their land has emerged. This transition potentially influences their understanding of these topics, warranting further study. Future research should consider how these technologies reshape growers’ interactions with their bogs and the broader landscape, probing whether adopting precision agriculture alters their relationship with their environment. Moreover, attention should be given to the broader societal impact of these changes, which extend beyond the immediate benefits of innovation to potentially profound systemic shifts, as argued by Loorbach et al. [78] and Voß and Bornemann [79]. Fisher [80] also suggests that understanding political decisions regarding climate change requires considering how interests in local natural resources translate into political outcomes. Therefore, the governance of agricultural innovation must incorporate a comprehensive framework to ensure these transitions are sustainably beneficial and do not unintentionally exacerbate vulnerabilities. Limitations This research acknowledges two primary limitations. Firstly, while a combination of online and hard copy survey methods was used to target a diverse demographic and reduce selection bias, there remains the possibility that not all viewpoints were representatively captured. Secondly, the survey and interview data, spanning from 2012 to 2018, might not entirely reflect current trends in cranberry growers’ attitudes towards climate change. Despite extensive research, no more recent, publicly accessible systematic data were found in this area. As a result, our study, while capturing a significant historical period, represents the most comprehensive analysis currently available, offering insights into the long-term adaptation strategies and perceptions of cranberry growers amidst climate variability.

Conclusion The cranberry bog is a model example of a coupled social-ecological system, where weather, Extension, growers, and technology interact in an iterative feedback loop that allows the system to steadily adapt to new environmental conditions. Changes in natural conditions influence agricultural communities’ knowledge networks like Extension [34], which influences the on-going conversation among growers about climate change preparedness. Nature is also an influential actor in the cranberry bog socio-ecological landscape, as growers are modifying their practices despite being less concerned about global warming than other Americans. Massachusetts cranberry growers are actively adapting their production practices by adopting new ways to sand their bog, installing more efficient irrigation systems and renovating bogs with new higher yielding varieties. They also have more accurate weather forecasts available to them, which allow them to respond to weather extremes. How long technology can stave off the impacts of a changing climate on cranberry production is an open question.

Acknowledgments We thank the UMass Cranberry Station for providing access to hard copies of their earlier newsletter issues and for their help, along with the CCCGA, in recruiting growers to participate in our survey. We also thank Michael J. Iacono, Chief Scientist at Blue Hill Observatory, for providing monthly and annual temperature and precipitation data for the time periods we requested. This study would not have been possible without the assistance of Rachel Weed, Sandra DiDonato, and Vivian Truong. Finally, we are very grateful to all the cranberry growers who shared with us their experiences cultivating cranberries in an increasingly complicated environment.

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