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The state of abortion in the U.S. two years post-Dobbs • Tennessee Lookout [1]

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Date: 2024-06-27  

Abortion was legal and uncontroversial at the time of the nation’s founding. But during the mid-19th century (around the same time male doctors sidelined midwives and took control of obstetrics), medical and religious groups began pressuring lawmakers to enact abortion restrictions.

For almost two centuries, anti-abortion tactics have been to restrict and control women. From the first state-level ban on abortion in the 1880s to bans in all 50 states by 1910 to the thousands of women who died from back alley abortions, anti-abortionists tried, and failed, to prevent abortions.

Americans who had to bury their wives, sisters, aunts, and mothers had had enough. Following a groundswell of activism and litigation in the mid-20th century, the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision produced a half-century of constitutionally protected abortion access.

Georgia Tech research showed that while 23% of women in abortion ban states who sought abortions following the Dobbs decision were prevented from obtaining the procedure in their home states, an overwhelming majority, 77%, were able to access abortion healthcare elsewhere.

Two years ago this month, Roe was struck down by a conservative majority of Court justices in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, a ruling that green-lit 21 states to severely restrict or entirely ban abortion. A grim anniversary, yet one with a silver lining. This latest anti-abortion campaign has almost entirely failed to control women’s reproductive decisions.

Data on abortion, sterilizations, and the birth rate show America’s women will not be controlled

Removing women’s rights to abortion is not only unconstitutional, it does not result in fewer abortions. What had been a decades-long decline in abortions (when Roe was in place) reversed just before the Dobbs decision. About 8% more abortions occurred in 2020 than in 2017, and 5% more occurred in 2021 than in 2020. In 2022, states that banned abortions following Dobbs saw 114,590 fewer abortions than expected, but states that allowed the procedure saw 116,790 more abortions than expected, a net increase.

Data is still being finalized, but the Guttmacher Institute reports 1,025,690 abortions in 2023, the most ever recorded.

Women’s demand for reproductive autonomy post-Dobbs doesn’t stop there. One study examined the rate of permanent contraception procedures — including tubal ligation, and hysterectomies — from 2019 through 2023. Procedures among women ages 18 to 30 had increased monthly by 2.84% before the Dobbs decision. Following Dobbs, that figure almost doubled to 5.31% more sterilizations.

And then there’s the birthrate. To be clear, abortions are not the sole factor influencing U.S. births, but anti-abortion advocates have tried to use abortion bans to increase births. Sometimes they’re successful, but only marginally and fleetingly so. For example, while Georgia Tech research showed that 23% of women in abortion ban states who sought abortions following the Dobbs decision were prevented from obtaining the procedure, an overwhelming majority, 77%, were able to access abortion healthcare elsewhere. In the aggregate, 2023 saw just under 3.6 million babies born in the U.S., the lowest one-year tally since 1979.

The conclusion? Fewer women are becoming pregnant, and a greater percentage who do are obtaining abortions, despite many saying they want to have children. These factors broadcast serious warning signs about the health of our society, yet the right is too busy trying to create a version of America that resembles the dystopian Margaret Atwood book, “The Handmaid’s Tale,” to address the brutal socioeconomic conditions affecting women and their intimate partners.

Warnings for November despite a public opinion shift

Following the Dobbs decision and the cruel challenges it imposed on millions of women, Americans increased their support for abortion legalization. In 2021, 60% of Americans thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases. On the eve of the Dobbs decision in 2022, 61% held that view. Today, 63% take the pro-choice position.

But are the polls accurate? Recent elections suggest they are. When the question of abortion access has been given to constituents by way of ballot proposals, the pro-choice position has won in seven out of seven states that had the issue on their ballot post-Dobbs, including in several deep red states.

Abortion bans don’t work, and Americans don’t want them, yet rather than admitting the policy failures, abortion-ban states like Tennessee have doubled down. Results will continue to be harmful. Tennessee has a projected shortage of 170 OB-GYN doctors in 2030, and 75% of medical students, residents, fellows, and practicing physicians say they will not practice medicine in states with legal consequences for providing abortion care. The state’s approach to reproductive health will only make outcomes worse for Tennessee women who want to have healthy pregnancies, which is saying a lot, as the Volunteer State is outpaced only by Arkansas and Mississippi in maternal mortality.

It’s even worse on the national level. Former president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump proudly brags that it was his Supreme Court picks that ensured the downfall of Roe. Trump has made numerous statements alluding to a continued war on reproductive autonomy should he win the 2024 presidency.

Donald was likely too busy having affairs to notice, but carrying pregnancies to term is dangerous work. Women are 14 times more likely to die from pregnancy than an abortion, and the U.S. ranks 55th in maternal mortality, falling behind every developed nation in the world. Abortion bans in the modern era may be mostly ineffective in reducing abortions, but they make life a living hell for women who are pregnant and don’t want to be. Red states like Tennessee and Republicans writ large would be far better off shifting from a stance of punishing and controlling women to one of supporting American families by providing access to healthcare, family leave, sex education, and childcare.

But alas, that’s not the world we live in. November approaches, and on the entrance ramp to elections stands the Right, holding its thumb out. On its face, a toothy grin. In its other hand, a cardboard sign. “Fascism or bust,” it reads.







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[1] Url: https://tennesseelookout.com/2024/06/27/the-state-of-abortion-in-the-u-s-two-years-post-dobbs/

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