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Have climate models overestimated global warming? [1]

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Date: 2024-06-03 20:14:23+00:00

Wisconsin Watch partners with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. Read our methodology to learn how we check claims.

No.

Climate models have correctly predicted how the planet would warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions.

Models use the laws of physics to probe Earth’s climate system — this being the atmosphere, oceans, land and biosphere. They apply what are known as external forcings to that system, such as changes in incoming sunshine or greenhouse gas levels, to see how the climate may change over time.

In a 2019 study, the temperature predictions from 17 climate models used between 1970 and 2007 were compared to observed temperatures. The study concluded the models were “skillful in predicting” future temperatures.

A more recent study published in 2023 looked at climate models created by scientists working for ExxonMobil. Their modeling was found to have been just as accurate as that developed within academia, with average projected warming within the same bounds as that of academic and government bodies from 1970 to 2007.

See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science



This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

Geophysical Research Letters: Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections

Science: Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

Skeptical Science: New paper: Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

University of Queensland: Climate Modeling Success Stories

The Guardian: The father of climate change

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[1] Url: https://wisconsinwatch.org/2024/06/climate-global-warming-temperatures-models-greenhouse-gas/

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