SECURITY
Suppose—
- The Balkans degenerate into another regional war.
- The Koreas collapse into a peninsular conflict.
- China does not peacefully resolve its differences with Taiwan.
- A pre-emptive strike occurs against a developing nuclear state in Central Asia.
- A government unfriendly to the United States develops miniaturized nuclear devices.
- Japan rearms with weapons of mass destruction.
- Russia takes a turn toward authoritarianism domestically and asserts itself internationally with threats of violence.
- Successful ballistic missile defenses are developed.
- Nuclear conflict occurs in South Asia.
- An attack on the critical infrastructure of the developed states brings major sectors of the global economy to a halt.
- Ethnic cleansing and genocide erupt in Latin America or sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia.
- Nuclear proliferation to Iran or to an Arab state occurs.