Covid and Bitcoin

16 Feb. 2021

Its been a long winter. Like many people, we have had limited
physical contact with friends and family over the past year.
Have now lost 3 people to Covid, including an aunt and uncle.
My brother lost his senses of smell and taste months ago, and
there's no sign its going to come back.
 
My wife has been vaccinated as a healthcare worker, but I'm still
too young and vigorous to qualify. I am longing for a family
holiday somewhere warm, with others around, maybe a beach.

Today I want to describe something true and important to me
but I realize that I am running the risk of sounding 
like I'm gloating and pretentious, or even an a fool.
Let me give it a shot.

Bitcoin hit $50,000 today, which makes this a landmark day for me.
I've been waiting for this day since $50.  I'm so glad I made it
very difficult to get to them, or I likely would have happily 
sold off all my Bitcoins at $5,000. Or even $500. 

For the first time, and at least for this very moment,
I can really say I have achieved 'FU money' status. It has been a
bit uneventful, but then again, I had not really thought through
what should happen when this day arrived. Somehow, part of me thought
it never would arrive. It was fun looking forward to the day, but
now that its here, its not what I thought it would be. Sort of 
an anti-climax.

But arrive it did, probably as it does for many people each day
across the world who tally up their net worth and say, 'oh, wow, 
thats cool,'...
...you find that few others know or care that your life has been 
changed, but not REALLY changed.  

Nothing has physically changed.

I can imagine doing lots of fun stuff, but I don't feel like
I've been held back much in life. After a few more fun holidays,
then what?  Do we really want to dramatically change our lives 
while everything is so good? I'm not the kind of guy who needs
a flashy car or wrist watch to feel good about himself. 

And why should anyone give a shit about me and my good
fortune, just because I control something invisible that is magically
worth millions of dollars.  It could vanish as easily as it appeared.
It is just a constantly rolling number in a portfolio app.
It feels like monopoly money.  And so I am predisposed to 
continue 'gambling' millions every day in the Bitcoin market, 
even while I still use coupons to save $.10 gallon on gas.

I sold a couple of Bitcoin a few weeks back for about $90,000
to pay off my kids college bills and fund her next year of college.
When I got the money into my bank account, then it felt real.
I also felt a little sick selling the Bitcoin. I physically
felt ill doing it.

I think whats going on is that I have enjoyed the ride,
and the dream so much that I don't want it to be over.
I sort of want to turn Bitcoin back to $5000 and do it 
again. I may be addicted to the adrenaline rush.

I've enjoyed the community I've experienced with
people I have never met, getting 'rich' with several others
that I have been in contact with for years.

There is a certain excitement about it all. In 2017, when Bitcoin
went to $20,000 for the first time, I held on.  Then it dropped all
the way to $3000.  I lost millions (or did I?), and my accountant
thought I was an idiot. He would have sold at the top, of course!
But now, holding though the storm for 3 years has increased the value
more than twice as much as it was at the 2017 peak. Essentially,
I earned millions of dollars in magical internet money by simply 
doing nothing. 

And still I don't have the  sense to convert it to US Dollars. 
 
Or perhaps I have too much sense. 

How much higher do I think it will go?  I haven't really thought
beyond $50,000, but I don't see why it shouldn't at least
double again in the next year or two, putting it over $100,000. 

If I'm asked, 'How high can the price go?"  my go-to
answer to that question is simply, how much money can 
the government mint? Is there a cap on how much USD or EUR
can be minted?  If unlimited dollars are chasing a limited
asset, then I guess there's really no limit to what it can
be worth someday, especially when the bigger the asset
becomes, the more useful it becomes.

The cool thing about Bitcoin is that the bigger it gets,
the bigger it can get.  What I mean is that the higher
the liquidity and market cap, the more attractive it
gets for the super rich big boys to enter. That is what
is happening now.

Selling off Bitcoin will be the largest, most important
financial move in my life.  I don't think I'm emotionally ready 
to make that move yet, to cash in these chips right now without
a clear idea of what should happen next.

I have been asked by others, at almost every Bitcoin price point,
whether I thought they should buy Bitcoin or not.  My answer is
always no, they should not.  Not because Bitcoin can't make
them money, but because they I think they can't make 
money with Bitcoin.

I think most people cannot handle the ride, or control their greed.
Its too easy to sell off after simple 2x profit
or to freak out and sell off after a 50% drop.  
Never try to time Bitcoin.

I am still buying, even at this price.  I've shifted 1/3 of my
retirement portfolio into GBTC and ETHE, and plan to move
up to half of it.  Is it risky?  The experts say yes, but thankfully,
I have NEVER listened to the financial experts. And today, I think,
would be a very bad day to start.