Date: Mon 25 Nov 2019 12:25:52 PM PST

I am currently sitting in my hotel room at the Treasure Island.  I
actually sat down at a blackjack table for the first time in my life.
Came in with $120 and came out with $485.  After buying the celebration
drinks I'm at $465.  Obviously feeling pretty good right now.

I wanted to write a bit about the nature of gambling and my thoughts
on the matter.  Specically, i wanted to write about how BS it is that
people think casinos are "unbeatable".  And this is true _if you
gamble_.  I do not consider what I did gambling.  And before you chock
it up to beginners luck, I've put a lot of thought into this.

What I consider gambling is going into a casino and just playing blindly,
not concerning yourself with what the actual odds are.  This is one of
the reasons why I decided I will never go to a slot machine.  You could
probably make an argument for deciding odds about them when they were
purely mechanical, but nowadays there's proprietary shitcode in those
things that are most likely rigged to be in the casino's favor.

What I did was careful calculation.  I'm not going to sound like I made
up the theory myself.  I actually read Edward Thorp's "Beat The Dealer" [0].
I admit I read this book in the hopes of chasing some "get rich quick" dream.
But this book explains how you can beat the casino's odds through some
patterns figured out through math. For instance, when the dealer shows a 6 or
higher and you've got a 16, hit it. Or you should always split 8's and Aces.
The basic strategy is divided into the playing strategy and the betting
strategy, the latter involving card counting.  I could go farther, but you
should probably read the book for better information.

The main point that I want to get at is that Thorp found this strategy using
mathematical calculation and computer simulation.  This guy was a math
professor at MIT.  He didn't just go blindly into casinos and freaking out
when a high card came out.  Of course, the book also goes into detail about
how he won a bunch of money, but that's only after he ran all the simulations
to determine if the strategy was viable.  Careful planning and **not playing
with your gut** are key if you want to win at this game.

I don't plan on making a carrer out of gambling, but it wouldn't hurt to have
these skills.  For me, I just find the challenge intriguing.  Plus I like
money.  :^)

[0]: http://www.edwardothorp.com/books/beat-the-dealer/